The Florida Keys Real Estate News & Market Trends Blog

You’ll find our Florida Keys Real Estate Blog to be a wealth of information, covering everything from local market statistics and home values, home buying and selling ideas and tips, to community happenings from Key Largo to Key West. That’s because we care about community and want to help you find your place in it. Please reach out if you have any questions at all. We’d love to talk with you!

April 5, 2021

February's Single-Family Home Price Growth Set New Records

February's Single-Family Home Price Growth Set New Records

Stories of rising home prices are no longer breaking news, but still, they are pretty remarkable. Black Knight, in its latest Mortgage Monitor, says the 12.3 percent growth in the selling price of single family homes in February was the highest such annual home price growth of any month on their records dating back to 1992. The overall price growth during the month was 11.6 percent, dragged lower by a 6.4 percent growth rate in condo prices.

The company says this discrepancy bears watching. Condos typically appreciate more quickly when the housing market heats up, as it certainly has over the last year, and decelerate more quickly when markets cool. This reversal of historical patterns may suggest underlying weakness in the condo market. Perhaps this is driven by the pandemic and fears of living in close quarters.

 

 

Black Knight's Collateral Analytics team puts the years price appreciation even higher, at nearly 15 percent. The team runs market condition ratings for every CBSA and ZIP code in the U.S., using the most recent sales and active listing data, and rates them on an array of market indicators. These include trends in sold/active prices, inventory levels, sold/active market times, and sold-to-list price ratios. Each ZIP code is then given a qualitative rating, ranging from hot to distressed. Historically, about two-thirds to four-fifths of all markets fall in the middle three categories ("good," "normal" or "soft"), while less than 10 percent are considered in either the "hot" or "distressed" categories at the top or bottom of normal cycles.

As of February 2021, about 75 percent of ZIPs are currently either "strong" (47 percent) or "hot" (28 percent) markets, the highest share on record for either category and more than twice the previous record set back in late 2017. At the same time, those categories considered "soft," "weak" or "distressed"  have nearly disappeared from the charts.  Just 36 of the more than 14,600 ZIPs analyzed fell into these categories and only 7 percent of ZIP codes are categorized as "normal," down from 43 to 44 percent in both February 2020 and 2019.

 

 

Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske says incredibly low levels of for-sale inventory, coupled with still historically low interest rates, continue to put upward pressure on home prices and tighten affordability. "Of course, upward pressure on home prices has also served to tighten affordability, and with rates on the rise, affordability concerns are coming into sharper relief. It now takes 20 percent  of the median income to make the monthly payment on the purchase of an average-priced home, back up to the five-year average after several years of low interest rates mitigating the impact of rising prices.  on affordability. Housing is now the least affordable it's been - factoring in interest rates, home prices and income - since mid-2019."

The monthly principal and interest payment required to purchase the average priced home with 20 percent down has increased by $108 per month to $1203 since the beginning of the year. This is the highest the payment has been since late 2018 when the average home price was 16 percent lower, but the average 30-year rate was 17 points higher at 4.87 percent. The 20 percent of income required to make that payment is back to the 5-year average but still remains lower than the 20-year average of 23.4 percent. Over recent years the point between an acceleration and a deceleration in the housing market has been around 20.5 percent. At current price levels it would only take 30-year rates rising to 3.4 percent to push the payment-to-income ratio to that point.

 

 

Graboske, says Any hopes of 2021 bringing an influx of homes to the market and lessening pressure on prices appear to be dashed for now, as new for-sale listings were down 16 percent and 21 percent year-over-year in January and February, respectively. "Rather than an influx of homes on the market, we're now 125,000 fewer new listings in the hole compared to the first two months of 2020 and trending in the wrong direction. With higher interest rates and a continuing shortage of inventory, it will be important to keep a careful eye on both home prices and affordability metrics in the coming months."

Those 125,000 fewer available homes represent a 40 percent year-over-year decline, and the supply of single-family homes is 46 percent lower. Condo inventory has held up better, it is down only 15 percent. New listings typically reach a peak in May so that volume as well as the direction of interest rates will largely dictate the trajectory of the 2021 housing market.

 

 

The Monitor also updated the current disposition of loans that are in or have exited forbearance. As of March 23, there have been seven million homes in forbearance programs since about the same time last year when the pandemic struck. About 43 percent of those loans have exited the program and are now performing. Another 167,000 have exited (2 percent) and are delinquent and not in loss mitigation, but 107,000 of those were non-current heading into the pandemic. Former participants who are in loss mitigation total 306,000 or 4.0 percent. Fourteen percent of forborne loans have been paid off, and 5 percent are new entries, in their first three month forbearance term. Graboske, his leaves 2.198 loans still in the program, about 32 percent.

Black Knight says performance results continue to vary by investor class. Sixty-eight percent of GSE borrowers have exited and two-thirds are performing or have paid off their loans. Borrowers serviced for bank portfolios or private label securities have the largest shore of borrowers remaining delinquent post-forbearance, but most were not performing prior to the program. FHA loans have seen the lowest share of borrowers leaving the plans.

 

April 4, 2021

February 2021 Keys Real Estate keeps on truckin'

Florida Keys Real Estate Sales Statistics for February 2021 continue the record breaking pace of January as accelerating buyer urgency before the looming "build out" continues to tighten supply... some Year over Year highlights:

Single family homes:

  Dollar Volume +70.8%

  Average Sales Price +36.6%

  Closed sales +25%

  Pending inventory +85.9%

  Active listings inventory -56.6%

  Months supply of Inventory -64%

Manufactured Homes:

  Closed sales +28.6%

  Paid in Cash +50%

  New Pending Sales +300%

  Pending inventory +228.6%

  Active listings inventory -50.5%

  Inventory Supply -70.1%

Condos and Town homes:

 Closed Sales +77.8%

  Median Sales Price +14.8%

  Paid in Cash +50%

  Dollar volume +67.3%

  New Pending Sales +105.9%

  Pending Inventory +115%

  Active listings Inventory -57.2%

The Market continues to rock!...the Florida Keys Real Estate Rush just keeps on going...about 53% of all Florida Keys Real Estate for sale is under contract right now !!  Inventory and Months of supply numbers are way down across the board, as buyers compete for the dwindling supply of homes in Paradise, as the looming build out here in the Keys, and what it means, is starting to sink in...more people in line for building rights that there are available rights = what you see is what you get.

No shortage of buyers, that's for sure. The issue continues to be lack of supply.

What does "build out" mean? It means no more new building permits for new dwelling units in the Florida keys !  Renovations will be permitted, but the number of dwellings is capped. Most areas already have the remining available new dwelling permit slots remaining open filled with the application line up...

What's going on? Demand from just about every demographic and geography for all possible reasons is keeping a fire burning under Florida Keys Real Estate.  Covid has also changed attitudes towards work, retirement, health, safety, and quality of life, in a manner that has made owning Florida Keys Real Estate even more attractive than it already was.

Investors, second home buyers, retirees, local families, all are putting pressure on the remaining homes in the Florida Keys as the consequences of the Looming build out sink in ... NO MORE SUPPLY. 

Average and median sales prices are now starting to reflect the inevitable price appreciation.  Relatively speaking, the Florida Keys remain "undiscovered" to a certain extent on a Global basis, but that is now rapidly changing.  Compare Florida Keys waterfront home prices to Key Biscayne near Miami, or waterfront in California, and you can see that Keys prices are a fraction of those prices.

Of course, there are always those that will try and "call a top". Who knows? Interest rates are ridiculously low vis a vis the real inflation out there, decent safe investment yield is hard to find, REAL inflation is happening in risk assets, and the printing presses are running flat-out 24/7 !  Real estate has always been an excellent investment during times like this, and what might look like a top today, but looking back in a few years, will look like an excellent buying opportunity and a decent entry into a market with a known and mandated limited supply, that has excellent cash flow opportunities. 

Does anyone really know what Bitcoin is worth? It's worth what anyone will pay for it.  Problem is, it could lose most of its value in the blink of an eye. Thankfully, Real Estate values are easier to decode, one metric is that it is worth the future value of it's cash flow. It's also a great inflation hedge that has stood the test of time.

Contact us now at 305-781-5704 call/text, or TheKeysLifestyle@gmail.com, to find out how owning Florida Keys Real Estate can fit into your plans and portfolio! 

April 4, 2021

Florida Keys Real Estate Stats February 2021 Manufactured Homes

April 4, 2021

Florida Keys Real Estate Stats February 2021 Townhouses and Condos

April 4, 2021

FL Keys Market Stats February 2021 Single Family

March 30, 2021

January Double-Digit Breaks Records

January's Double-Digit Home Price Gains Continue to Break Records

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price indices and the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA's) House Price Index (HPI) all show that the growth of home prices continued to accelerate through January, even as interest rates began to creep higher.

Case-Shiller's National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, rose 11.2 percent compared to its January 2020 level. The annual gain in December was 10.4 percent. The 10-City Composite Index posted an annual increase of 10.9 percent, a full percentage point above its 12-month gain the previous month. The 20-City Composite, with Detroit's data now included in the calculations, was up 11.1 percent compared to January of last year. Annual appreciation was 10.2 percent in December.

Phoenix, Seattle, and San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities, with Phoenix in the led for the 20th month. That city's January increase was 15.8 percent. Seattle and San Diego followed with respective increases of 14.3 percent and 14.2 percent. All 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending January 2021 versus the year ending December 2020.  

On a month-over-month basis the National Index rose 0.8 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.8 percent and 0.9 percent. All three indices were up 1.2 percent after adjustment. Nineteen of 19 of 20 cities had gains from December before seasonal adjustment, and all 20 cities did so afterward. Sixteen of those cities had growth in double digits.

Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and S&P Dow Jones Global Head of Index Investment Strategy, said, "The trend of accelerating prices that began in June 2020 has now reached its eighth month and is also reflected in the 10- and 20-City Composites. The market's strength is broadly-based: all 20 cities rose, and all 20 cities gained more in the 12 months ended in January 2021 than they had gained in the 12 months ended in December 2020.

 

 

"January's performance is particularly impressive in historical context. The National Composite's 11.2 percent gain is the highest recorded since February 2006, just one month shy of 15 years ago. In more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data, January's year-over-year change is comfortably in the top decile. That strength is reflected across all 20 cities. January's price gains in every city are above that city's median level, and rank in the top quartile of all reports in 18 cities.

"January's data remain consistent with the view that COVID has encouraged potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes. This demand may represent buyers who accelerated purchases that would have happened anyway over the next several years. Alternatively, there may have been a secular change in preferences, leading to a shift in the demand curve for housing. Future data will be required to analyze this question.

CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp said, "While double-digit home price growth has raised concerns about its sustainability, affordability crunch resulting from strong home price growth and higher mortgage rates will discourage some potential home buyers from entering the market and take some wind out of its sails, slowing the home price growth rate by about a half by the end of 2021. The biggest concern remains the lack of for-sale homes. Potential sellers may be discouraged by their inability to find a new home and subsequently choose to not list their own home - leading to a vicious cycle of declining for-sale homes."

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family home pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The National U.S. Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50 percent appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.

As of January 2021, the National Index was at 236.31  compared to 234.40 in December. The 10- and 20-CityComposites had readings of  256.50 and 242.98, up from to 254.18 and 240.75 the prior month. Los Angeles has the highest index reading at 321.04. Over the many months that COVID-19 related problems made Detroit data unavailable, the city it nearly displaced Cleveland from its last place position. Detroit's reading was 141.29, leaving Cleveland still with the lowest index at 141.28.

FHFA's HMI posted slightly higher January numbers than those from Case-Shiller, up 12 percent year-over-year compared to an annual gain of 11.4 percent the prior month. The monthly gain was 1.0 percent in January and the previously reported 1.1 percent price change for December 2020 was revised upward to 1.2 percent. 

Among the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes ranged from a 0.2 percent decline in the East South Central division to a 1.5 percent gain in the Mountain division.  Annual changes ranged from 10.2 percent in the West South Central division to 14.8 percent in the Mountain division. 

 

 

"While house prices experienced historic growth rates in 2020 and into the new year, the monthly gains appear to be moderating" said Dr. Lynn Fisher, FHFA's Deputy Director of the Division of Research and Statistics. "House prices increased by 1.0 percent in January, which is relatively still high, but represents the smallest month-over-month gain since June 2020." 

The FHFA HPI is based on sales prices of homes financed by mortgages acquired by the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The index was benchmarked at 100 in January 1991 and the current reading is 316.70.

 

March 21, 2021

Florida Keys Real Estate Market kicks off 2021 with a BANG!

Florida Keys Real Estate Sales Statistics for January 2021 start the year with accelerating buyer urgency before the looming "build out" amid tightening supply... some Year over Year highlights:

Single family homes:

  Median Sales Price +60.1%

  Average Sales Price +63.4%

  Closed sales +70.4%

  Pending inventory +77.1%

  Active listings inventory -55.7%

  Months supply of Inventory -64.2%

Manufactured Homes:

  Closed sales +60%

  Dollar Volume +131.8%

   Median sales price  +82.9%

  Pending inventory +33.3%

  Active listings inventory -33.2%

Condos and Town homes:

 Closed Sales +36.4%

  Average Sale Price +85.8%

  Paid in Cash +200%

  Dollar volume +153.3%

  New Pending Sales +120%

  Pending Inventory +136.4%

  Active listings Inventory -46.6%

What a start to the year!...the Florida Keys Real Estate Rush just keeps on going...about 50% of all Florida Keys Real Estate for sale is under contract right now !!  Inventory and Months of supply numbers are way down across the board, as buyers compete for the dwindling supply of homes in Paradise, as the looming build out here in the Keys, has already begun to manifest...more people in line for building rights that there are available rights = late to the party.

No shortage of buyers, that's for sure. The issue continues to be lack of supply.

What does "build out" mean? It means no more new building permits for new dwelling units in the Florida keys !  Renovations will be permitted, but the number of dwellings is capped. Most areas already have the remining available new dwelling permit slots remaining open filled with the application line up...

What's going on? Demand from just about every demographic and geography for all possible reasons is keeping a fire burning under Florida Keys Real Estate.  Covid has also changed attitudes towards work, retirement, health, safety, and quality of life, in a manner that has made owning Florida Keys Real Estate even more attractive than it already was.

Investors, second home buyers, retirees, local families, all are putting pressure on the remaining homes in the Florida Keys as the consequences of the Looming build out sink in ... NO MORE SUPPLY. 

Average and median sales prices are now starting to reflect the inevitable price appreciation.  Relatively speaking, the Florida Keys remain "undiscovered" to a certain extent on a Global basis, but that is now rapidly changing.  Compare Florida Keys waterfront home prices to Key Biscayne near Miami, or waterfront in California, and you can see that Keys prices are a fraction of those prices.

Of course, there are always those that will try and "call a top". Who knows? Interest rates are ridiculously low vis a vis the real inflation out there, decent safe investment yield is hard to find, REAL inflation is happening in risk assets, and the printing presses are running flat-out 24/7 !  Real estate has always been an excellent investment during times like this, and what might look like a top today, but looking back in a few years, will look like an excellent buying opportunity and a decent entry into a market with a known and mandated limited supply, that has excellent cash flow opportunities. 

Does anyone really know what Bitcoin is worth? It's worth what anyone will pay for it.  Problem is, it could lose most of its value in the blink of an eye. Thankfully, Real Estate values are easier to decode, one metric is that it is worth the future value of it's cash flow. It's also a great inflation hedge that has stood the test of time.

Contact us now at 305-781-5704 call/text, or TheKeysLifestyle@gmail.com, to find out how owning Florida Keys Real Estate can fit into your plans and portfolio! 

March 21, 2021

Florida Keys Real Estate Stats January 2021 Manufactured Homes

March 21, 2021

Florida Keys Real Estate Stats January 2021 Townhouses and Condos

March 21, 2021

Florida Keys Market Stats January 2021 Single Family